Will China launch a territorial-control military offensive against Taiwan by the end of 2026?
Event Details
The active geopolitical market has about $39.7 million cumulative volume and $678,000 liquidity, with a price near 3.7%; the site applies its 8% floor.
- Status: open
- Volume: 44.49M
- Liquidity: 402.18K
- Best bid: 2.2%
- Best ask: 2.3%
Outcomes
- Yes 2.3%
- No 97.8%
Resolution Rules
Yes if China begins a military offensive intended to control any inhabited territory administered by Taiwan by the deadline. Threats, exercises or action limited to uninhabited islands do not count.