Latest prediction: Can the Israel-Iran ceasefire last all September?
Event Details
An in-depth look at the September 30 cutoff, 84% live probability, roughly $497,707 real volume, and settlement limited to qualifying direct-impact air and missile attacks.
- Status: settled
- Volume: 3.34M
- Liquidity: 0
- Best bid: 99.8%
- Best ask: 100%
Final Result
Yes
Outcomes
- Yes 99.9%
- No 0.1%
Resolution Rules
Yes requires no qualifying air, surface-to-surface missile, or one-way attack-drone strike directly hitting the other's land or internal waters. Interceptions, debris, cyber, small arms, artillery, naval gunfire, and minor short-range attacks do not count.