Latest prediction: Will formal US–Iran talks begin by September 30?
Event Details
The source market shows 86% Yes, about $1.43 million total volume and $196,000 over 24 hours. Synced 86%: heavy trading and the near deadline support a high likelihood, while the formal-level and commencement tests retain execution risk. Yes if the next formal senior-level peace-talk round begins by September 30 at 11:59 PM ET; otherwise No. Government acknowledgement or credible-reporting consensus is required, and settlement waits for one completed Gamma/UMA result.
- Status: settled
- Volume: 1.70M
- Liquidity: 0
- Best bid: 99.5%
- Best ask: 99.9%
Final Result
Yes
Outcomes
- Yes 99.9%
- No 0.1%
Resolution Rules
Yes if the next formal senior-level peace-talk round begins by September 30 at 11:59 PM ET; otherwise No. Government acknowledgement or credible-reporting consensus is required, and settlement waits for one completed Gamma/UMA result.