In-depth look at the UK's 5% unemployment test

In-depth look at the UK's 5% unemployment test

Event Details

Analysis of the September 15 release, prior 4.9%, BoE's 5.0% projection and 61% opening chance; the first ONS print settles it.

Information source

UK Labour Market: September 2026

Outcomes

  • Yes 61%
  • No 39%

Resolution Rules

Yes at 5.0% or above; below 5.0% is No. Later revisions do not count.

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