In-depth look at the Fed's October 2026 rate-hold odds
Event Details
After September's move to 3.75%-4.00%, the October 27-28 hold trades at 54.5%; compare the Fed upper bound and await final Gamma/UMA settlement.
- Status: open
- Volume: 14.90M
- Liquidity: 638.37K
- Best bid: 86%
- Best ask: 87%
Outcomes
- Yes 86.5%
- No 13.5%
Resolution Rules
Yes if the October FOMC statement leaves the upper bound unchanged from its pre-meeting level; an increase or cut is No. Nonstandard changes follow the source market's 25-bp bracket rule. If no October statement arrives by the next meeting's end, its no-change bracket wins. Only a unique completed Gamma/UMA result settles.