Latest prediction: the Fed's September rate decision

Latest prediction: the Fed's September rate decision

Event Details

A full look at the September 16 decision, 3.50%-3.75% baseline, 92% opening chance and first-statement settlement rule.

Information source

September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting

Outcomes

  • Yes 92%
  • No 8%

Resolution Rules

Yes if the first official statement raises the 3.50%-3.75% range by at least 25 basis points; unchanged or lower is No. Later corrections do not count.

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