Will Canada's October policy rate reach at least 2.50%? | Full analysis

Will Canada's October policy rate reach at least 2.50%? | Full analysis

Event Details

The Bank of Canada held its overnight target at 2.25% in September and schedules the next decision for October 28. Opening 22%: the September hold at 2.25% and the Bank's broadly on-track outlook make a near-term hike a minority scenario. Yes if the Bank of Canada's October 28, 2026 decision sets the target for the overnight rate at 2.50% or more; below that is No. A postponed decision counts if published by November 30, otherwise No. Use the Bank's official decision and rate table.

Information source

September rate hold and October 28 announcement schedule

Outcomes

  • Yes 22%
  • No 78%

Resolution Rules

Yes if the Bank of Canada's October 28, 2026 decision sets the target for the overnight rate at 2.50% or more; below that is No. A postponed decision counts if published by November 30, otherwise No. Use the Bank's official decision and rate table.

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