Latest prediction: Will U.S. August core PCE inflation be at least 3.3%?

Event Details

BEA will release August Personal Income and Outlays on September 30; July core PCE inflation was 3.3% year over year. Opening 58%: core PCE has held exactly 3.3% for two months after 3.5% in May; persistence favors the threshold, while annual revisions and monthly cooling limit conviction. Use the one-decimal year-over-year core PCE figure in BEA’s first August release; 3.3% or higher is Yes, lower is No.