Full analysis: Will Japan’s September Tankan large-manufacturer index reach 20?

Full analysis: Will Japan’s September Tankan large-manufacturer index reach 20?

Event Details

The Bank of Japan will publish the September Tankan on October 1; June’s large-manufacturer current-conditions DI was 22 and its September forecast was 17. Opening 47%: June’s actual 22 cleared the line, but firms forecast only 17 for September; actual readings often beat forecasts, leaving the chance just below even. Use the first September Tankan value for large manufacturing enterprises’ current business-conditions DI; 20 or higher is Yes, 19 or lower is No.

Information source

Tankan September 2026 release schedule and June 2026 outline

Outcomes

  • Yes 47%
  • No 53%

Resolution Rules

Use the first September Tankan value for large manufacturing enterprises’ current business-conditions DI; 20 or higher is Yes, 19 or lower is No.

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