Full analysis: Will UK monthly GDP grow in August 2026?

Full analysis: Will UK monthly GDP grow in August 2026?

Event Details

Due at 14:00 Beijing time on October 15, with a 58% opening probability. June and July grew but August signals weakened; an initial monthly change above 0.0% is Yes, zero or negative is No.

Information source

UK GDP monthly estimate and October 2026 release calendar

Final Result

Yes

Outcomes

  • Yes 58%
  • No 42%

Resolution Rules

Yes if the first August real-GDP month-on-month estimate is above 0.0%; 0.0% or negative is No, using the initial one-decimal headline before revisions.

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