Full analysis: Will euro-area GDP grow at least 0.2% quarter on quarter in Q3?

Event Details

Eurostat publishes the preliminary Q3 flash estimate on October 30; euro-area GDP grew 0.6% quarter on quarter in Q2. Opening probability is 72%: Q2's 0.6% momentum and a modest threshold favor Yes, but trade, inventory and geopolitical risks leave a realistic slowdown case. Use Eurostat's first seasonally adjusted Q3 flash estimate: 0.2% quarter-on-quarter or higher is Yes; below 0.2% is No. Exclude year-on-year data and later revisions.