Complete guide: Will Xavier Becerra win California's 2026 governor election?

Event Details

California votes November 3 in a Becerra-versus-Steve Hilton contest; official polling closes at 8 p.m. Pacific. Opening probability is 86%: polling and California's long partisan pattern strongly favor Becerra, with voting still ahead and a residual campaign tail risk. Use the California Secretary of State's certified result: Becerra certified governor-elect is Yes; any other certified winner is No. A binding recount or court order before certification applies.