Full analysis: Will U.S. Q3 2026 real GDP growth reach 3.5% annualized?

Event Details

BEA releases the advance estimate at 20:30 Beijing time on October 29; Atlanta Fed GDPNow stood at 3.6% on October 15. Opening probability is 52%: the Atlanta Fed's 3.6% real-time estimate is only slightly above the line, and incoming data can still put the official result on either side. Use BEA's first Q3 2026 annualized quarter-on-quarter real-GDP figure: 3.5% or higher is Yes; below is No. Exclude revisions, GDPNow, nominal GDP and year-on-year growth.