Latest prediction：Will euro-area inflation reach 3.5% in October 2026?

Event Details

Eurostat releases the October flash estimate on November 4; September annual inflation was 3.8%, up from 3.2% in August. Opening probability is 68%: September's 3.8% is three tenths above the threshold and energy remains strong, but volatile base effects leave meaningful downside risk. Use Eurostat's first October 2026 euro-area all-items HICP annual flash rate: 3.5% or higher is Yes; lower is No. Exclude EU, core, monthly and revised figures.