Michigan Senate race full analysis: El-Sayed’s chances
Event Details
November 3, 2026 Michigan Senate election; current probability 53%. Settlement follows the state-certified winner.
Information source
Michigan 2026 election results and Marist October likely-voter poll
- Status: open
- Volume: 0
- Liquidity: 0
Outcomes
- Yes 53%
- No 47%
Resolution Rules
Yes if Michigan officially certifies El-Sayed as its November 3 U.S. Senate winner; No if someone else wins. Unofficial returns are insufficient.