Complete guide:Will preliminary U.S. November consumer sentiment reach 48.0?

Complete guide:Will preliminary U.S. November consumer sentiment reach 48.0?

Event Details

The University of Michigan releases preliminary November sentiment at 23:00 Beijing on November 6; only the headline index counts. Opening probability is 50%: October ended exactly at 48.0 and September at 48.1, placing the line at the recent center while inflation worries and improving expectations pull opposite ways. Use the first preliminary November 2026 headline Index of Consumer Sentiment: 48.0 or more is Yes; lower is No. Exclude Current Conditions, Expectations, inflation expectations and the final reading.

Information source

2026 consumer-sentiment release dates and October final results

Outcomes

  • Yes 50%
  • No 50%

Resolution Rules

Use the first preliminary November 2026 headline Index of Consumer Sentiment: 48.0 or more is Yes; lower is No. Exclude Current Conditions, Expectations, inflation expectations and the final reading.

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