Full analysis:Will the ECB keep its deposit rate at 2.50% in October?

Full analysis:Will the ECB keep its deposit rate at 2.50% in October?

Event Details

The ECB publishes its policy decision at 21:15 Beijing on October 29; only the first deposit facility rate counts. Opening 63%: a pause just after a hike has a modest edge, but the ECB's meeting-by-meeting stance prevents an overwhelming probability. Yes if the first October 29 decision keeps 2.50%; No for any other rate. Delay stays pending and later corrections do not count.

Information source

ECB Governing Council calendar and key rates

Outcomes

  • Yes 63%
  • No 37%

Resolution Rules

Yes if the first October 29 decision keeps 2.50%; No for any other rate. Delay stays pending and later corrections do not count.

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