September US trade deficit at the $100 billion line — full analysis

Event Details

The August deficit was $105.6 billion, above July's revised $92.8 billion. September could remain elevated. BEA schedules its September goods-and-services report for 21:30 Beijing on November 4; the first deficit figure decides. Current probability 57%. Yes if the first seasonally adjusted September goods-and-services deficit from BEA and Census is at least $100 billion; No if lower. Exclude revisions.