Germany Q3 GDP growth threshold — complete guide

Germany Q3 GDP growth threshold — complete guide

Event Details

The Q2 first estimate was +0.2% quarter on quarter and was later revised to +0.3%; only the Q3 first release counts. Destatis schedules the first Q3 estimate for October 30 at 17:00 Beijing time. Current probability 58%. Yes if the first Q3 real GDP estimate, adjusted for prices, seasons and calendar, rises at least 0.2% from Q2; otherwise No. Ignore revisions.

Information source

Destatis Q2 2026 first GDP release and October 2026 weekly release preview

Outcomes

  • Yes 58%
  • No 42%

Resolution Rules

Yes if the first Q3 real GDP estimate, adjusted for prices, seasons and calendar, rises at least 0.2% from Q2; otherwise No. Ignore revisions.

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